Some friends on the Book of Face shared a couple of articles that reinforces my belief that cities, particularly the largest metropolises, are about to enter a depression.

First is an article about the impending death of New York. He makes an interesting case about the damage done by COVID may be the mortal blow.

Second is an article on people fleeing San Francisco.

Between COVID and the riots, I believe many folks are asking themselves if all the costs of living in these cities are worth the cost. For a lot of them – particularly those who can do their work remotely – will answer no. They will move to lower cost and relatively safer cities. There will be many cascading effects from the diaspora, but two that I’m watching with interest.

  1. Will this cause the wave of municipal and state bankruptcies some of us have been expecting for some time? If so, does the fed step in? I’m kinda thinking that if it plays out where the fed has to go in and sort out the states – and cities – messes, the states and cities will become even more the puppets of Washington. It may also accelerate the feds reckoning, but that’s kind of like a runaway train on a flat track. We know it’s a matter of time when it will derail, but we can’t see where.
  2. What will happen when the refugees from these cities start voting in their new home areas? Will they adopt the values of their new homes? Will they try to bring the “perks” and “expectations” (along with the requisite taxes and regulations) to their new homes? Based on prior experience, I’m not too hopeful.